Sheffield United and Burnley are 11 points from Premier League safety and appear doomed with only 12 games remaining.
But who else is under peril of relegation to the Championship? Which teams will survive?
Eight points separate 18th-placed Luton from the five teams immediately above them – Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Everton, Bournemouth, and Crystal Palace.
But it’s complicated.
Everton and Forest are both waiting for results after being accused in January with alleged accounting irregularities for 2022-23.
Forest’s case will be heard on Thursday, March 7, and Friday, March 8.
If they are discovered to have violated the regulations, they will lose points. A ruling is not expected until April and will be open to appeals.
Any appeal might push the process to 24 May, the week after the season ends on May 19.
Everton were punished 10 points in November for failing to meet profit and sustainability regulations (PSR) for the three-year period ending in 2021-22.
However, the punishment was lowered to six points following an appeal.
Current table
| Premier League table as of 1 March | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Played | Points | GD | Form (last 5 games) |
| 13. Crystal Palace | 26 | 28 | -13 | WLLDW |
| 14. Bournemouth | 25 | 28 | -14 | DDLDL |
| 15. Everton | 26 | 25 | -6 | DDLDD |
| 16. Brentford | 26 | 25 | -11 | LWLLL |
| 17. Nottingham Forest | 26 | 24 | -14 | LDLWL |
| 18. Luton Town | 25 | 20 | -16 | WDLLL |
| 19. Burnley | 26 | 13 | -33 | LDLLL |
| 20. Sheffield United | 26 | 13 | -44 | LLWLL |
The run-in
Crystal Palace: 2 March v Tottenham (away); 9 March v Luton (home); 30 March v Nott’m Forest (away); 2 April v Bournemouth (away); 6 April v Man City (home); 14 April v Liverpool (away); 20 April v West Ham (home); 27 April v Fulham (away); 4 May v Man Utd (home); 11 May v Wolves (away); 19 May v Aston Villa (home); TBC v Newcastle (home).
Bournemouth: 3 March v Burnley (away); 9 March v Sheff Utd (home); 13 March v Luton (home); 16 March v Wolves (away); 30 March v Everton (home); 2 April v Crystal Palace (home); 6 April v Luton (away); 14 April v Man Utd (home); 20 April v Aston Villa (away); 27 April v Brighton (home); 4 May v Arsenal (away); 11 May v Brentford (home); 19 May v Chelsea (away).
Everton: 2 March v West Ham (home); 9 March v Man Utd away); 17 March v Liverpool (home); 30 March v Bournemouth (away); 2 April v Newcastle (away); 6 April v Burnley (home); 15 April v Chelsea (away); 20 April v Nott’m Forest (home); 27 April v Brentford (home); 4 May v Luton (away); 11 May v Sheff Utd (home); 19 May v Arsenal (away).
Brentford: 2 March v Chelsea (home); 9 March v Arsenal (away); 16 March v Burnley (away); 30 March v Man Utd (home); 3 April v Brighton (home); 6 April v Aston Villa (away); 13 April v Sheff Utd (home); 20 April v Luton (away); 27 April v Everton (away); 4 May v Fulham (home); 11 May v Bournemouth (away); 19 May v Newcastle (home).
Nottingham Forest: 2 March v Liverpool (home); 10 March v Brighton (away); 16 March v Luton (away); 30 March v Crystal Palace (home); 2 April v Fulham (home); 8 April v Tottenham (away); 13 April v Wolves (home); 20 April v Everton (away); 27 April v Man City (home); 4 May v Sheff Utd (away); 11 May v Chelsea (home); 19 May v Burnley (away).
Luton Town: 2 March v Aston Villa (home); 9 March v Crystal Palace (away); 13 March v Bournemouth (away); 16 March v Nott’m Forest (home); 30 March v Tottenham (away); 3 April v Arsenal (away); 6 April v Bournemouth (home); 13 April v Man City (away); 20 April v Brentford (home); 27 April v Wolves (away); 4 May v Everton (home); 11 May v West Ham (away); 19 May v Fulham (home).
Burnley: 3 March v Bournemouth (home); 10 March v West Ham (away); 16 March v Brentford (home); 30 March v Chelsea (away); 2 April v Wolves (home); 6 April v Everton (away); 13 April v Brighton (home); 20 April v Sheff Utd (away); 27 April v Man Utd (away); 4 May v Newcastle (home); 11 May v Tottenham (away); 19 May v Nott’m Forest (home).
Sheffield United: 4 March v Arsenal (home); 9 March v Bournemouth (away); 16 March v Man Utd (away); 30 March v Fulham (home); 4 April v Liverpool (away); 7 April v Chelsea (home); 13 April v Brentford (away); 20 April v Burnley (home); 27 April v Newcastle (away); 4 May v Nott’m Forest (home); 11 May v Everton (away); 19 May v Tottenham (home).
What do the prediction models suggest?
| Predicted Premier League final table – Opta | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | % chance of relegation | Current position & points |
| 13. Bournemouth | 0.84 | 14th – 28 points |
| 14. Brentford | 3.56 | 16th – 25 points |
| 15. Crystal Palace | 4.03 | 13th – 28 points |
| 16. Everton | 4.13 | 15th – 25 points |
| 17. Nottingham Forest | 19.18 | 17th – 24 points |
| 18. Luton Town | 69.32 | 18th – 20 points |
| 19. Burnley | 99.24 | 19th – 13 points |
| 20. Sheffield United | 99.58 | 20th – 13 points |
Opta’s’supercomputer’ prediction model calculates the likelihood of each match outcome (win, draw, or loss) using betting market odds and their own Opta team rankings, which are based on historical and recent team performance. These probabilities are simulated thousands of times.
| Predicted Premier League final table – Nielsen’s Gracenote | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team and predicted points in brackets | % chance of relegation | Current position & points |
| 13. Bournemouth (44) | 1 | 14th – 28 points |
| 14. Crystal Palace (40) | 3 | 13th – 28 points |
| 15. Everton (40) | 3 | 15th – 25 points |
| 16. Brentford (40) | 4 | 16th – 25 points |
| 17. Nottingham Forest (37) | 13 | 17th – 24 points |
| 18. Luton Town (30) | 77 | 18th – 20 points |
| 19. Burnley (23) | 99 | 19th – 13 points |
| 20. Sheffield United (21) | 99.7 | 20th – 13 points |
Data specialists Nielsen’s Gracenote calculated each team’s percentage chance of relegation based on their remaining fixtures.
