A football financial expert outlines what Forest may expect following Everton’s six-point punishment, as well as how it may effect Manchester City.
Nottingham Forest’s hearing after being charged with violating the Premier League’s profit and sustainability criteria (PSR) starts this week.
With Forest 17th in the table, just four points ahead of Luton Town and the relegation zone, the likelihood of point deductions poses a significant threat to their Premier League survival.
Everton were initially docked 10 points for a similar violation, although it was reduced to six on appeal last month.
Here are all the likely results of Forest’s FFP hearing, as well as how it would affect their hopes of Premier League survival and Manchester City’s imminent 115 charges.
Three potential outcomes of Forest’s FFP hearing
Unlike Everton’s appeal, which was handled with all of the evidence established, we don’t know much about the charges against Forest.
We know that, unlike Everton, which had a legal loss ceiling of £105 million, Forest can only have lost £61 million between 2019 and 2023 because they spent three of those seasons in the Championship.
While the initial trial determined that Everton had lost £19.5 million over the limit, it is unclear how severe Forest’s infringement is.
However, we can infer it is less than £20 million because Forest’s principal mitigation is expected to be the sale of Brennan Johnson. Johnson was transferred to Tottenham for £50 million in August 2023, outside of the financial period covered by this report, but Forest rejected a £30 million offer from Brentford in June.
Given the lower threshold, a breach of about £11 million is proportionally equivalent to Everton’s £19.5 million.
And, according to sports finance specialist Dr Rob Wilson, Everton’s appeal has now established the standard for Forest’s – and all future – PSR breaches.
“What we now know is that in the Premier League’s view, a £20m overspend of PSR equates to a six-point reduction,” Wilson tells i.e. “You would be working out Forest’s penalty based on the seriousness of the breach.”
If Forest’s infringement is directly or proportionally similar to Everton’s, there will undoubtedly be expectations that they will receive the same penalty, which may be the most secure outcome from the Premier League’s perspective.
However, Wilson does not believe this will be the case. “I don’t think it’ll be as huge as Everton’s, perhaps half the size. I think they’ll get three or four points.
“The Brennan Johnson case will serve as mitigation, just as Everton was able to demonstrate that they have had a low net spend in recent years as a result of their former high net spend.
“Forest will refer to the fact that they sold Johnson and that the transaction brought them back into compliance, assuming it did. Eventually, this will benefit them. You have taken away that particular player’s sports advantage.”
There is also the potential that they will just face a financial penalty, but Wilson believes this is not a viable option: “The critics will refer to the fact that they stayed up last season because they violated PSR.
“The same could be said of Everton, which is why I think they will get a points penalty, but mitigation will land in their favour, particularly now we have the six-point benchmark with Everton.”
What influence might Forest’s FFP charge have on the relegation battle?
Even though Wilson forecasts a three or four-point reduction for Forest, it might have a significant impact on their season.
They are currently only four points ahead of Luton, who have one game in hand, so even a minor deduction might be fatal.
Aside from that, the uncertainty surrounding the continuing accusation might have a significant impact on Forest’s players and management, who are unsure what they need to do to preserve their Premier League survival.
Forest’s preliminary ruling is due in early April, although they will have the option to appeal any potential punishment, which they are certain to do if it includes any type of point reduction.
The Premier League has set a backstop date of Friday, May 24 for any appeals in this instance, which is five days after the season ends.
This means Forest will most likely conclude the season not knowing if they are safe or not, forcing them to play their final games without clear criteria for securing their survival.
How Forest’s FFP hearing affects Man City’s 115 charges
As Everton and Forest fans have noted throughout their respective campaigns, Manchester City was charged with 115 breaches of PSR in January 2023, a case that has yet to be heard or settled.
This is due to the intricacy of the City’s many breaches, around 35 of which are for significant infractions, as well as a number of events involving reportedly refusing to disclose documents and delaying down the inquiry into them.
However, Everton and Forest’s arguments could still have a substantial impact on City’s hearing, which is anticipated to take place as early as October this year.
They will establish the only standard for punishment in a case like City’s, whether they are found guilty of one or all 115 charges. The city has fiercely denied any wrongdoing.
Wilson goes on to say: “Any lawyer will be using the six points as the benchmark now, which is why we had the palaver in the first place [with Everton], because they’re probably thinking about it ultimately in the context of City.”
