Newcastle United suffered a 2-0 Premier League loss to the hands of top flight leaders Liverpool on Wednesday.
It was another loss, but it’s fair to say it wasn’t unexpected.
Newcastle United failed to end their remarkably poor run of form at Anfield as they were yet again beaten by Liverpool, and again it was at a canter.
A first half strike from Dominik Szoboszlai then a second from Alexis Mac Allister ensured the dress rehearsal for the Carabao Cup final in three weeks ended with the hosts claiming all three points.
It is a result that, in many ways, strengthens Liverpool’s prospects of winning only their second Premier League crown, putting them 14 points clear at the top of the league, rather than denting Newcastle’s chances of winning the Champions League.
Does it feel the Magpies can return to European competition after missing out this season? Or does it believe it will once again prove too much for Eddie Howe’s men?
Here’s an examination of the top ten Premier League teams right now, as well as the possibilities each has of qualifying for the Champions League next season. It should be noted that, as things stand, five teams, up from four, are expected to qualify directly from the Premier League. As a proviso, the number might rise to six if an English team finishes outside of the Euros and wins the Europa League, such as Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United.
Opta gives Liverpool more than a 98% chance of winning the title, therefore it’s no surprise that they’re ranked as 100% certain to qualify for the UCL next season.
As a result, it rates them as having a 0% chance of winning any other tournament.
2. Arsenal – 99.71%
They may have struggled this season, but not enough to jeopardize their prospects of qualifying for Europe’s premier cup tournament, according to Opta.
Mikel Arteta’s team may only have a 1.33% probability of winning the Premier League title right now, but they are 99.71% likely to qualify for the Champions League.
3. Manchester City – 84.25%
They’re normally bankers, and they’re almost there this season, despite their enormous drop off. Opta believes Pep Guardiola and his team will return to the Champions League, with an 84.25% chance of doing so.
It’s 0% for the title, which is unusual for Pep’s men at this point in the season, with an 8.52% chance of finishing in the Europa League.
4. Nottingham Forest – 39.08%
They’ve been right in the mix all season, and a draw against Arsenal hasn’t hurt their chances, but Opta gives Forest less than a 40% chance of returning to a competition they haven’t played in since 1979 and 1980.
The possibility of securing a Europa League spot, which would be earned by finishing sixth, is estimated to be 21.96%.
5. Chelsea – 33.19%
Opta believes Enzo Maresca has a 33.19% chance of leading Chelsea back to the promised land, a competition they won under current England manager Thomas Tuchel.
Their form has been patchy, but few in the race can deny their own has been any better, in fairness.
As things stand Opta thinks it might be more likely that UCL is coming to Stamford Bridge – which will boost the coffers – than Europa League, 21.27% likelihood.
6. Newcastle United – 25. 55%
According to Opta, the Magpies have a one-in-four probability of claiming one of the top five positions, albeit the data analysts believe it is still somewhat more likely than a spot in the secondary Europa League as things stand.
Opta gives Eddie Howe’s men a 20.88% chance of making that one.
7. AFC Bournemouth – 10.42%
Things are starting to get less likely than likely as we make our way down the Premier League top 10 – and while AFC Bournemouth have been an absolute revelation this campaign, a Champions League slot is likely beyond them in Opta’s eyes.
They have a 13.19% chance of making the Europa League using current form.
8. Brighton & Hove Albion – 5.08%
While Brighton have a 5% chance of Champions League, Opta thinks they have a 7%(ish) chance to make it into the Europa.
9. Aston Villa – 1.59%
This season’s likely Champions League quarter finalists won’t make it back in next year? It’s no surprise, really, given the extra pressures the competition brings on a Premier League team. And Newcastle know a thing or two about all of that.
As a result, Opta thinks it’s less than 3% Villa get any Euro comp next season, and less than 2% it’s the UCL again.
10. Fulham – 0.88%
The rank outsiders in the whole race, according to Opta, are Fulham. In fairness, the analysts don’t give them much of a chance at all.
They even think it’s a less than 3% chance they make any European competition at all.
