Forest fans would have followed attentively as Everton’s first 10-point deduction for breaching the PSR was reduced to six on appeal.
The news that Everton’s initial 10-point deduction for violating the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR) was lowered to six on appeal would likely have cheered and terrified Nottingham Forest fans in equal measure.
On the one hand, Forest, who are facing accusations for their own PSR violation, will be relieved to see that the punishment threshold has been reduced from ten to six points.
On the other hand, a six-point penalty would be enough to drop Nuno Espirito Santo’s side behind Luton Town and into the relegation zone.
So, when will Forest discover their FFP fate, and what could it be?
Nottingham Forest’s FFP hearing, overseen by Nick De Marco KC, also known as “the Lionel Messi of sports law,” is set to begin next week. The ruling is expected soon.
A verdict is expected around the beginning of April, albeit this will most likely not be the end of it.
Forest, like Everton, has every chance of appealing any penalty that is initially granted.
The Premier League has set a backstop deadline of May 24 for the hearing and appeals procedure to be completed, three days after the season ends.
This implies that both Forest and Everton will likely play their final games with no idea whether they will lose any more points this season.
And, considering Forest’s current proximity to Luton and the relegation zone, they could wind up in the unusual situation of surviving on the pitch but being relegated by lawyers when the season is over.
What might happen during Nottingham Forest’s FFP hearing?
Everton’s appeal decision has given Forest the clearest indication yet of the type of penalty they may face for their own infringement.
While the two cases are very different, and each is currently being reviewed on its own merits, Everton’s appeal has at least established a standard for future PSR fines.
In the Everton case, the independent committee determined that six points were the “minimum but sufficient sanction required to achieve the aims of PSR”.
Everton was found to be £19.5 million over the £105 million loss limit during a three-year period, which is approximately 18.5% above the permissible threshold.
Because Forest spent two of the three years for which they are charged in the Championship, their loss maximum is actually only £61 million. Forest’s PSR breach will be decided during their hearing next week, however a similar breach in percentage terms to Everton’s would result in Forest’s losses of about £72 million.
Both teams also make various claims regarding mitigation. Everton alleged losses as a result of constraints imposed on former owner Alisher Usmanov, accusations of child sex offenses against anonymous Player X, and costs associated with their current stadium development.
Forest are anticipated to focus on the timing of their £50 million transfer of Brennan Johnson to Tottenham, which slipped outside the relevant financial period by two months but would have maintained them comfortably inside the laws.
As I previously wrote, rival Premier League clubs expect Forest to incur a points reduction in some manner, and Everton’s decision looks to support that expectation.
It appears that they will be penalized similarly to Everton, with about six points. Anything harsher would once again establish a difficult standard for the Premier League to meet, and anything much lower may be interpreted as favouring Forest.
