Latest Nottingham Forest news as the Reds await the verdict of the charge for breaking Profitability and Sustainability Rules.
The challenge Nottingham Forest faces in their bid for survival may soon become clearer as the Reds await any penalties for violating financial restrictions.
A ruling is due this week, possibly on Monday, after an independent committee heard Forest’s case for violating Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR). And it could result in a points deduction for Nuno Espirito Santo’s team.
According to financial laws, Premier League clubs can only make a maximum deficit of £105 million over a rolling three-year period, or £35 million every season. For promoted teams, this is lowered, thus the Reds have been limited to losses of £61 million over the last three seasons – £13 million for the two seasons in the Championship before promotion, plus £35 million last season. It is unclear how far the club has gone beyond the limit.
Everton were fined 10 points earlier this season for a PSR violation, but that was reduced to six on appeal, now they are facing a second accusation. With that in mind, the Premier League table may look different when the Reds return to action following the international break.
Following Saturday’s 1-1 tie with Luton Town, they are currently 17th, three points above the dotted line. They are level on points with Everton, but have a goal differential of -16 to the Toffees’ -10, and Sean Dyche’s side has a game in hand.
It is unclear what Forest’s penalty will be. However, football financial specialist Kieran Maguire has stated on X (previously Twitter) that the most likely outcome is four or five points subtracted and an agreement not to appeal.
If this is the case, Nuno’s team will slide to the bottom three. Anything more than three points deducted would push them into the relegation zone.
Three points deducted would leave the Reds in the same position. They would be tied on points with Luton but still ahead on goal differential (-16 to the Hatters’ -18).
Four or five points deducted would send Forest to 18th place, maybe two points behind Luton. However, they would remain ahead of Burnley and Sheffield United.
If the punishment is six points, which matches Everton’s revised penalty, the Reds would have 19 points. They would be behind Luton (22 points) but somewhat ahead of the Clarets (17 points).
To tumble behind Burnley in the table, Forest would need to lose nine or more points. Of course, Everton could yet face another points deduction in the relegation battle, although indications indicate that this is unlikely to happen before April.
What would a point deduction signify in the relegation battle?
The magic mark for survival has long been set at 40 points. That hasn’t always been enough, but more often than not, teams with that number have finished above the dotted line, and the total required to avoid dropping has typically been lower.
Last season, the Reds kept up with 38 points and finished 16th. Everton finished barely below them in the final standings, with 36 points.
Forest has nine games left to play. Five of their games take place at the City Ground, while three are away to opponents in the same division.
Since the 1995/96 season, when the league was reduced to 20 teams, 36 points was enough to make it through at least 16 games. West Ham United was relegated with 42 points in 2003, the greatest total for a demoted team. Sunderland (1997) and Bolton Wanderers (1998) are the only other teams that finished in the bottom three with at least 40 points.
How the relegation battle ended in the last ten seasons.
2022/23: Everton is in 17th place with 36 points, while Leicester City is in 18th with 34 points.
2021/22: 17th – Leeds United (38 points); 18th – Burnley (35 points).
2020/21: Burnley, 17th (39 points); Fulham, 18th (28 points).
2019/20: 17th – Aston Villa (35 points); 18th – Bournemouth (34 points).
2018/19: 17th – Brighton & Hove Albion (36 points), 18th – Cardiff City (34 points).
Southampton finished 17th in 2017/18 with 36 points, while Swansea City came in 18th with 33 points.
In 2016/17, Watford finished 17th with 40 points, while Hull City finished 18th with 34 points.
Sunderland finished 17th with 39 points in 2015/16, while Newcastle United came in 18th with 37 points.
Aston Villa finished 17th in the 2014/15 season with 38 points, while Hull City finished 18th with 35.
West Bromwich Albion finished 17th with 36 points in 2013/14, while Norwich City came in 18th with 33 points.
